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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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PLACEThriving

Dumfries, VA

Thriving overall. Federal Funds is the clearest support signal, while housing needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score76out of 100
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NA
75
78
65
100

Population

5,816

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

Unavailable YoY

NA

Unavailable

Local GDP is unavailable for this geography.

Vintage date unknown

State growth5.4%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

75

3.4%

Unemployment is 3.4% for Latest available.

Vintage date unknown

State avg4.3%
U.S. avg5.2%

Population

+4.6% 5-year

78

5,816

Population moved +4.6% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population8,705,170
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

65

25.2%

Median rent consumes 25.2% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$1.6K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$11.4K per resident

100

$5.5B

$5.5B in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$214.1B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

Industry GDP mix is unavailable for this geography.

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$5.5B

$11.4K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Department of Defense$2.6B
2. Social Security Administration$1.5B
3. Department of Veterans Affairs$740.0M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION$658.8M
2. PERATON RISK DECISION INC.$271.9M
3. CACI, INC. - FEDERAL$231.4M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

25.2%

of median income

1BR estimate$1,420
2BR estimate$1,871
Median income$82,355
Median home value$331,800

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

5,816

Median age

33.3

Bachelor's degree+

24.1%

Poverty rate

5.0%

Labor force participation

77.1%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.2%

U.S. GDP YoY

+6.5%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

Latest available

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-07-31

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+0.9%

GDP CAGR

Unavailable

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
20205,559
20215,669
20225,697
20235,749
20245,816

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

20245,816
20255,876 *
20265,936 *

R² = 96.2% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$82,355/yr
Median rent$1,732/mo
Rent share of income25.2%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$20,133/yr
Mortgage share of income24.4%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate3.4%
State avg4.3%
U.S. avg5.2%
Labor force participation77.1%
Poverty rate5.0%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. Latest available.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$331,800
Median monthly rent$1,732
Price-to-rent ratio16.0x

Moderate price-to-rent ratio — buying and renting are roughly balanced in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateStrong
Composite score76/100
Economic growthN/A
Labor market75/100
Population momentum78/100
Overall stability76/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

Dumfries town, Virginia

City/Town

Part of

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Nearby locations

Triangle, VACherry Hill, VAQuantico Base, VAQuantico, VALeesylvania, VA