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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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PLACEThriving

Mcswain, CA

Thriving overall. GDP / Output is the clearest support signal, while jobs needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score86out of 100
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100
74
100
82
82

Population

5,783

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

+9.2% YoY

100

$13.3B

Output changed +9.2% in 2024.

Vintage date unknown

State growth5.8%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

74

3.2%

Unemployment is 3.2% for Latest available.

Vintage date unknown

State avg6.6%
U.S. avg4.3%

Population

+30.6% 5-year

100

5,783

Population moved +30.6% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population39,287,377
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

82

13.1%

Median rent consumes 13.1% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$2.0K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$5.9K per resident

82

$1.7B

$1.7B in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$485.6B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$1.7B

$5.9K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Social Security Administration$904.3M
2. Department of the Interior$250.1M
3. Department of Agriculture$152.5M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. NW CONSTRUCTION, INC$226.8M
2. REDACTED DUE TO PII$108.2M
3. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, MERCED$73.4M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

13.1%

of median income

1BR estimate$1,243
2BR estimate$1,637
Median income$139,131
Median home value$690,100

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

5,783

Median age

33.8

Bachelor's degree+

33.6%

Poverty rate

17.1%

Labor force participation

66.2%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.9%

U.S. GDP YoY

+5.9%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

Latest available

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-06-16

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+5.5%

GDP CAGR

+6.7%

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
20204,429
20214,606
20225,042
20235,556
20245,783
GDP (5 years)
2020$9.6B
2021$10.6B
2022$11.8B
2023$12.2B
2024$13.3B

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

20245,783
20256,181 *
20266,546 *

R² = 97.6% · * projected

GDP forecast

2024$13.3B
2025$14.2B *
2026$15.0B *

R² = 98.2% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$139,131/yr
Median rent$1,516/mo
Rent share of income13.1%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$41,874/yr
Mortgage share of income30.1%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate3.2%
State avg6.6%
U.S. avg4.3%
Labor force participation66.2%
Poverty rate17.1%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. Latest available.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$690,100
Median monthly rent$1,516
Price-to-rent ratio37.9x

High price-to-rent ratio — renting may be more economical than buying in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateStrong
Composite score90/100
Economic growth100/100
Labor market74/100
Population momentum100/100
Overall stability86/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

McSwain CDP, California

City/Town

Part of

Merced, CA

Nearby locations

Atwater, CAFranklin, CAWinton, CAMerced, CACressey, CA