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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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PLACEStable

Mesa Del Caballo, AZ

Stable overall. Federal Funds is the clearest support signal, while jobs needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score64out of 100
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59
40
91
65
100

Population

944

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

+2.9% YoY

59

$2.4B

Output changed +2.9% in 2024.

Vintage date unknown

State growth7.5%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

40

5.4%

Unemployment is 5.4% for June 2026.

Vintage date unknown

State avg4.9%
U.S. avg4.2%

Population

+6.9% 5-year

91

944

Population moved +6.9% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population7,378,838
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

65

25.0%

Median rent consumes 25.0% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$1.5K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$11.8K per resident

100

$627.0M

$627.0M in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$112.1B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$627.0M

$11.8K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Social Security Administration$446.5M
2. Department of Veterans Affairs$44.3M
3. Department of the Interior$38.6M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. SAN CARLOS APACHE TRIBAL COUNCIL$49.4M
2. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ARIZONA$33.0M
3. SAN CARLOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT$13.7M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

25.0%

of median income

1BR estimate$982
2BR estimate$1,294
Median income$57,475
Median home value$255,400

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

944

Median age

39.7

Bachelor's degree+

16.9%

Poverty rate

2.2%

Labor force participation

68.1%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.2%

U.S. GDP YoY

+6.5%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

June 2026

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-07-30

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+1.3%

GDP CAGR

+5.7%

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
2020883
20211,010
20221,194
20231,188
2024944
GDP (5 years)
2020$1.8B
2021$2.2B
2022$2.2B
2023$2.3B
2024$2.4B

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

2024944
20251,134 *
20261,164 *

R² = 11.2% · * projected

GDP forecast

2024$2.4B
2025$2.6B *
2026$2.7B *

R² = 87.9% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$57,475/yr
Median rent$1,198/mo
Rent share of income25.0%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$15,497/yr
Mortgage share of income27.0%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate5.4%
State avg4.9%
U.S. avg4.2%
Labor force participation68.1%
Poverty rate2.2%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. June 2026.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$255,400
Median monthly rent$1,198
Price-to-rent ratio17.8x

Moderate price-to-rent ratio — buying and renting are roughly balanced in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateModerate
Composite score62/100
Economic growth59/100
Labor market40/100
Population momentum91/100
Overall stability64/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

Mesa del Caballo CDP, Arizona

City/Town

Part of

Payson, AZ

Nearby locations

Freedom Acres, AZFlowing Springs, AZPayson, AZBeaver Valley, AZEast Verde Estates, AZ