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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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PLACEThriving

Toms Brook, VA

Thriving overall. Jobs is the clearest support signal, while population needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score81out of 100
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67
100
63
74
94

Population

439

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

+4.0% YoY

67

$2.3B

Output changed +4.0% in 2024.

Vintage date unknown

State growth5.4%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

100

0.8%

Unemployment is 0.8% for Latest available.

Vintage date unknown

State avg4.3%
U.S. avg5.2%

Population

+2.1% 5-year

63

439

Population moved +2.1% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population8,705,170
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

74

18.7%

Median rent consumes 18.7% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$1.6K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$7.4K per resident

94

$327.7M

$327.7M in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$214.1B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$327.7M

$7.4K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Social Security Administration$278.4M
2. Department of Veterans Affairs$25.7M
3. Department of Agriculture$8.2M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. FEDSCALE INC.$5.0M
2. COUNTY OF SHENANDOAH$4.4M
3. BRIDGEPHASE LLC$3.4M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

18.7%

of median income

1BR estimate$693
2BR estimate$913
Median income$54,167
Median home value$226,800

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

439

Median age

33.8

Bachelor's degree+

5.9%

Poverty rate

20.9%

Labor force participation

73.2%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.2%

U.S. GDP YoY

+6.5%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

Latest available

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-07-31

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+0.4%

GDP CAGR

+4.6%

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
2020430
2021449
2022363
2023371
2024439
GDP (5 years)
2020$1.8B
2021$2.0B
2022$2.1B
2023$2.2B
2024$2.3B

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

2024439
2025392 *
2026386 *

R² = 5.5% · * projected

GDP forecast

2024$2.3B
2025$2.4B *
2026$2.5B *

R² = 98.9% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$54,167/yr
Median rent$845/mo
Rent share of income18.7%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$13,762/yr
Mortgage share of income25.4%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate0.8%
State avg4.3%
U.S. avg5.2%
Labor force participation73.2%
Poverty rate20.9%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. Latest available.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$226,800
Median monthly rent$845
Price-to-rent ratio22.4x

High price-to-rent ratio — renting may be more economical than buying in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateStrong
Composite score78/100
Economic growth67/100
Labor market100/100
Population momentum63/100
Overall stability81/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

Toms Brook town, Virginia

City/Town

Part of

Virginia

Nearby locations

Maurertown, VAMount Olive, VALocust Grove, VASaumsville, VAFishers Hill, VA