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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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COUNTYThriving

Durham County, NC

Thriving overall. GDP / Output is the clearest support signal, while housing needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score81out of 100
Compare
100
74
78
69
100

Population

332,353

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

+8.7% YoY

100

$53.3B

Output changed +8.7% in 2024.

Vintage date unknown

State growth6.2%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

74

3.2%

Unemployment is 3.2% for April 2026.

Vintage date unknown

State avg3.7%
U.S. avg4.3%

Population

+4.6% 5-year

78

332,353

Population moved +4.6% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population10,730,404
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

69

22.0%

Median rent consumes 22.0% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$1.2K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$18.9K per resident

100

$6.1B

$6.1B in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$129.4B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$6.1B

$18.9K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Department of Health and Human Services$3.2B
2. Social Security Administration$1.4B
3. Agency for International Development$304.4M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. DUKE UNIVERSITY$578.5M
2. RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE$538.5M
3. FAMILY HEALTH INTERNATIONAL$283.6M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

22.0%

of median income

1BR estimate$1,237
2BR estimate$1,629
Median income$82,316
Median home value$389,400

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

332,353

Median age

36.1

Bachelor's degree+

55.2%

Poverty rate

11.5%

Labor force participation

67.7%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.9%

U.S. GDP YoY

+5.9%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

April 2026

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-06-10

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+0.9%

GDP CAGR

+7.0%

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
2020317,665
2021320,146
2022325,101
2023329,405
2024332,353
GDP (5 years)
2020$37.9B
2021$41.6B
2022$45.1B
2023$49.0B
2024$53.3B

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

2024332,353
2025336,525 *
2026340,388 *

R² = 99.0% · * projected

GDP forecast

2024$53.3B
2025$56.8B *
2026$60.6B *

R² = 99.9% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$82,316/yr
Median rent$1,508/mo
Rent share of income22.0%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$23,628/yr
Mortgage share of income28.7%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate3.2%
State avg3.7%
U.S. avg4.3%
Labor force participation67.7%
Poverty rate11.5%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. April 2026.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$389,400
Median monthly rent$1,508
Price-to-rent ratio21.5x

High price-to-rent ratio — renting may be more economical than buying in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateStrong
Composite score84/100
Economic growth100/100
Labor market74/100
Population momentum78/100
Overall stability81/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

Durham County, North Carolina

County

Part of

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

Nearby locations

Durham, NCGorman, NCButner, NCChapel Hill, NCRougemont, NC