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EconPulse

Local economy signal dashboard

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COUNTYThriving

Denton County, TX

Thriving overall. Population is the clearest support signal, while jobs needs the most attention. Housing reads as affordable for a median-income household.

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Overall score75out of 100
Compare
73
64
100
74
74

Population

979,561

Data freshness

Unknown

GDP / Output

+4.9% YoY

73

$64.3B

Output changed +4.9% in 2024.

Vintage date unknown

State growth5.0%
U.S. growth5.3%

Jobs

Unemployment rate

64

3.8%

Unemployment is 3.8% for May 2026.

Vintage date unknown

State avg4.4%
U.S. avg4.2%

Population

+13.7% 5-year

100

979,561

Population moved +13.7% over the latest ACS window.

Vintage date unknown

State population30,188,424
U.S. population334,922,499

Housing

Rent share of income

74

18.6%

Median rent consumes 18.6% of median household income: Affordable.

Vintage date unknown

State rent$1.4K
U.S. rent$1.4K
HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

Federal Funds

$4.9K per resident

74

$4.5B

$4.5B in federal obligations flowed here in FY2025.

Vintage date unknown

State total$311.4B
U.S. total$5.3T

Population and output

Trend Snapshot

Reported share

Industry Breakdown

FY2025

Federal Money

Federal obligations

$4.5B

$4.9K per resident in reported federal flow.

Top agencies

Dollars
1. Social Security Administration$3.2B
2. Department of Veterans Affairs$608.0M
3. Department of Transportation$181.2M

Top recipients

Dollars
1. TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION$178.6M
2. UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS$105.8M
3. M1 SUPPORT SERVICES, L.P.$59.7M

Affordable

Housing Affordability

18.6%

of median income

1BR estimate$1,417
2BR estimate$1,866
Median income$111,498
Median home value$437,200

ACS context

Quick Facts

Population

979,561

Median age

37.0

Bachelor's degree+

49.4%

Poverty rate

7.1%

Labor force participation

71.8%

Prime rate

6.8%

CPI YoY

+3.2%

U.S. GDP YoY

+6.1%

Sources and warnings

Data Provenance

Census ACS 5-year

2024

BLS LAUS / CPS

May 2026

BEA regional CAGDP1

2024

USAspending

FY2025

FRED

2026-07-16

HUD Fair Market Rent

Latest available

Data notes
  • HUD_API_TOKEN missing; ACS median gross rent is used as the housing affordability fallback.

5-year compound growth

Historical Trends

Population CAGR

+2.6%

GDP CAGR

+8.7%

Federal flow

5 years

Population (5 years)
2020861,690
2021885,012
2022914,870
2023945,644
2024979,561
GDP (5 years)
2020$42.4B
2021$48.4B
2022$56.6B
2023$61.3B
2024$64.3B

2-year linear forecast

Predictive Outlook

Population forecast

2024979,561
20251,006,268 *
20261,035,905 *

R² = 99.6% · * projected

GDP forecast

2024$64.3B
2025$71.7B *
2026$77.3B *

R² = 97.3% · * projected

Linear regression over available historical data. Projections are estimates based on past trends and do not account for policy changes, economic shocks, or other external factors.

housing affordability breakdown

Cost of Living

Median household income$111,498/yr
Median rent$1,728/mo
Rent share of income18.6%
Est. mortgage (30yr, 6.5%)$26,529/yr
Mortgage share of income23.8%

Rent data from Census ACS 5-year. Mortgage estimate assumes 20% down, 6.5% APR, 30-year fixed.

employment snapshot

Job Market

Unemployment rate3.8%
State avg4.4%
U.S. avg4.2%
Labor force participation71.8%
Poverty rate7.1%

Data from BLS LAUS / CPS. May 2026.

valuation snapshot

Real Estate

Median home value$437,200
Median monthly rent$1,728
Price-to-rent ratio21.1x

High price-to-rent ratio — renting may be more economical than buying in this market.

composite score

Investment Climate

Investment climateStrong
Composite score77/100
Economic growth73/100
Labor market64/100
Population momentum100/100
Overall stability75/100

Composite score weighs economic growth, labor market health, population momentum, and overall stability. Not financial advice.

Location Context

Denton County, Texas

County

Part of

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Nearby locations

Denton, TXCorinth, TXShady Shores, TXKrum, TXCross Roads, TX